2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 04, 2011

04

Indianapolis at New England

Sunday 12/04 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: LOSS

The Indianapolis Colts are now 0-11 and questions arise if this team can win a game before the close of the season. If they do, it will likely be with Dan Orlovsky under center as he gets the start vs. the Patriots. Orlovsky started seven games for the Lions a few years back (his only seven career starts) and the numbers are mediocre at best. In addition, he is probably rusty as he has thrown just 21 passes this year, and none the prior two seasons. I would not expect the Colts’ offense to advance this week. Given that they are averaging 13.6 points per game (11.6 on the road), New England's offense will have to do the scoring here for this total to be reached. Of course they can do it. After uncharacteristically scoring less than 30 points for three straight weeks, the Patriots have now scored 30+ in their last three. They have been pretty consistent, but have not scored 40 points all season. The biggest change is on defense where they are suddenly playing much better with not one of their last three opponents topping the 20-point mark. Indianapolis will most certainly be the fourth, as the Colts have scored 10 points or fewer in four of their last five. It may take New England to score 40+ for the first time this season to push this one OVER the total. While it seems a given that the Patriots will score a ton here vs. an inept Colts defense and push this game OVER, history says otherwise. New Englnad is 18-5 UNDER in their last 23 vs. really bad defenses (those allowing 27+ points per game). Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 11-2 UNDER at home vs. poor offensive teams (those scoring 17 or fewer points per game).  The Pats have only played four of their last 15 at home as a -10.5 or more favorite to the OVER. The Colts have now played four straight to the UNDER as a dog. Play on the UNDER.

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