This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 3:31PM ET.
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Indianapolis at Kansas City

January 11, 2004
img2:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Kansas City -3 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)

We’re getting an undervalued Chiefs team in this one, largely due to Indianapolis’ unbelievable showing last week. Both of these teams rock on offense and struggle on defense (yes, I’m being polite). Indy has Peyton Manning who, when he is on, is the best the game has to offer. However, there are a few important things going Kansas City’s way. First off, they are at home after a week of rest and two weeks of preparation. They have one of the great coaches of all time with a lot of positive playoff experience (the Colts and Tony Dungy, in contrast, have been horrible in the playoffs prior to last week). KC’s rushing game, with Priest Holmes, is likely to have its way against the Colt’s porous run D while Indianapolis will have success versus KC’s 29th ranked defense. Too great offenses and two bad defenses. Who has the advantage? I believe the extra week of rest and preparation will be enough for Kansas City. The Chiefs score 34 points per game at home and have won 13 straight at Arrow Head. It is arguably the loudest and toughest NFL venue for visiting teams. Average margin of victory in those thirteen games? 19.2! Kansas City has too much going for them to be just a three point favorite. They have the best offensive line in football and the best offense in football. They have the intangibles (Vermeil) and great special teams (Dante Hall). And most importantly, they have the extra week of rest.

Wunderdog’s systems and trends for this game:
+Semi-finals system #1 (36-9 ATS): No Pick
+Semi-finals system #2 (7-0 ATS): Picks Chiefs
+Matchup Power Ratings: Picks Chiefs
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Colts:
---1 trend with 70%-79% ATS record
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Chiefs:
---2 trends with 60%-69% ATS record
---1 trend with 70%-79% ATS record
---1 trend with 80%-89% ATS record


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