Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Indianapolis led Minnesota 10-6 entering the fourth quarter last Sunday and lost 16-10. The week since has been a teardown: general manager Chris Ballard was fired, and guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner were traded Tuesday. Jacksonville is 4-2 with 154 points scored and 104 allowed, and Indianapolis is 2-5 with 154 scored and 180 allowed. The Jaguars have won by 24, lost by 7, won by 29, won by 5, won by 2, and lost by 3, so four of six games were decided by single digits. Nelson's departure leaves the Colts thinner up front, and Daniel Jones was sacked four times in Minnesota. Jonathan Taylor still ran for 95 yards in that game and has run for 68 or more in six of seven games, and the Colts have scored 20 or more in five of seven. Jacksonville allows 17.3 points per game, third in the NFL. Houston scored 34 on that defense in its last game, the most it has allowed this year, and Trevor Lawrence threw for 306 yards and four touchdowns in the 34-31 loss. Jacksonville scores 25.7 a game, and Indianapolis allows the same 25.7 and now plays without Buckner. The Colts have allowed 41, 33, and 34 in three of their seven games. I expect Jacksonville to get its points against that defense and Indianapolis to keep answering on the ground. The total comes at slightly better than even money, so our bankroll gets paid for that script. Take the Colts with the points and the OVER on Sunday.