2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 11, 2015
This pick was released to clients on January 06, 2015 at 5:47PM ET.
Indianapolis at Denver
Sunday 01/11 04:40 PM Eastern
1 unit on Indianapolis +7 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total OVER 54 -102 (risk 2 to return 3.96) RESULT: loss
Denver's defense was supposed to be better this year. They learned first hand that dominating defenses win championships. The problem is, it's really not much better. Last season they were ranked 18th in the league in points allowed. This season they are ranked 17th. The Colts had a very strong offense for a much of the season, then things started to change. They put up 31.8 per game through twelve weeks. Then in the last four weeks of the regular season, they scored 25, 17, 7 and 27. I think one big factor was motivation. They played in a division that simply did not have a team chasing them all season and they kind of coasted to the finish line. Andrew Luck threw for 300+ yards in nine straight games, and then suddenly under 200 yards in the last three games of the season. That changed when the playoffs came, and the games were meaningful again as he threw for 376 yards against Cincinnati and the Colts put up 26 points. The Colts played in Denver in game one of the season, and although the scoreboard read 31-24 Denver, the Colts out-played the Broncos. They out-gained the Broncos and came within seven points despite a -2 turnover disadvantage. Luck went for 370 yards in that game. Teams that won as a home favorite in the same season, and now play again as a home favorite in the playoffs are 5-11 ATS in the last 16 occurrences. Both of these teams can put up points in a hurry as each team has reached to the 40-point mark on four occasions this season. The ball is going to be in the air a lot in this game as each QB will probably be close to either side of 40 passes, and that is going to make for a long game. When the Colts played defenses this season that look similar to the one they'll face today, Indy averaged 34 points per game. Denver put up 36 per game vs. defenses similar to the Colts'. The Colts own an 18-7-1 ATS mark in their last 26 vs. the AFC, and have a 35-17-2 record in their last 54 games when following a game where they allowed fewer than 15 points. The Colts have also been OVER the total in 10 of their last 14 games played on the road. Denver has been an almost automatic OVER at home where they are 33-13-1 in their last 47 home games to the OVER, and they are 13-3 in their last 16 at home vs. a team with a winning road record. I think Luck can keep pace here and make this a one possession game. If you are feeling adventurous, take the Colts to win outright at 2.5 to 1. For this official play we will take the points on Indianapolis and take the OVER.
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