2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 30, 2008
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Indianapolis at Cleveland
Sunday 11/30 01:00 PM Eastern
5 units on Cleveland +6 (-110) (risk 5 to return 5) RESULT: WIN
Everyone is beginning to sing the praises of the Colts again as they have won four straight games and Peyton Manning and company are back in business. I'm not as sold yet. Jeff Saturday won't be on the field again this week and we have seen the Colts struggle without him (Peyton Manning himself said Saturday is the single player he most misses). The Colts are winning games, but they have had just one big win all season. They blasted the Ravens at home 31-10. The Colts' six other wins on the season were nailbiters. They beat New England at home by 3, Houston at home by 6, Minnesota on the road by 3 in a miralce finish, Houston on the road by 4 in another miracle finish, Pittsburgh by 4, and last week on the road at San Diego by 4. They have recorded exactly one win by more than 6 points, and five of their seven wins have come by 4 points or less. This team is a few plays away from a 1-10 record. That is how tight their games have been, except the losses. Three of the four Colts losses have been by double digits (10, 16 and 20 points). They sit as a 7-4 team that has only outscored the opponent by a total of 3 points the entire season. And here they enter a potential letdown game. Their confidence is likely (mistakenly) quite high and after games vs. New England, Pittsburgh, Houston and San Diego, how can they get up for the Browns? Most think of the Browns as a bad team. But, this is a Browns team that has already defeated the Giants at home and kept it close with Pittsburgh (4 point loss) this season, and although they look ugly at times on defense, they seem to step up against the bigger teams at home. Their game against the Ravens showed them with a lead of 27-13 in the 3rd quarter before coughing it up. Only a pick-6 kept that one from ending in a 3 point loss. The Browns have shown enough to play big here in this spot, while the Colts margin of error is very small. Nine of the eleven Colts games have had them failing to cover this margin. I like the Brownies here.