2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 03, 2010
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Indianapolis at Buffalo
Sunday 01/03 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Indianapolis +8 (-109) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
The Indianapolis Colts upset their fans when they took out Peyton Manning in the third quarter last week, spoiling the opportunity for a perfect season. While you can make a case for it, I think it was tragic. No team has ever gone 19-0 and they were staring at a good chance to do it. They had to play their starters for one more half in a game they were leading. They should have done it. The chance of Manning getting injured to a point he couldn't play in the playoffs was probably slightly higher than the chance he'd get in a car accident on the way home. Dumb move. But, move on. I'm well aware of the Colts’ history after clinching and resting players, which is part of a longtime organizational policy. The Colts had dropped 11 straight games ATS in weeks 16 and 17, but recently have been 3-2 ATS. And, I think this team is pissed about last week, and there will be some subconcious pressure for them to perform here. The oddsmakers are aware of the fact that the Colts are often no-shows and have not only adjusted the line, but over adjusted the line. The Bills lost their QB and backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will be playing injured. We will likely see Brian Brohm here as well, but neither is going to be effective. This is a bad Bills team that has scored more than 17 points just two times in the last 13 weeks. Regardless who plays or doesn't play for the Colts, it will be a monumental chore to cover an inflated spread here. The Bills simply shouldn't be favored by this amount vs. any team, nevermind the Colts (even with backups).