2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

Sometimes it is hard to shake a reputation from a previous season when the new season is just four weeks old. That has been the case this year with both San Francisco and Houston. The Niners were a fierce defensive team a year ago, one that allowed a league best fewest points per game at 17.1 ppg. Houston was also a good defensive team a year ago, ranking as the #9 best unit in fewest points allowed at 20.7 ppg. This season has been markedly different but so far most people haven't acknowledged that. San Francisco has been pedestrian on defense, ranked #18, allowing 23.8 ppg. That's almost 7 points more than a year ago. Houston ranks #23 allowing 26.2 ppg, at 5.5 ppg more than a year ago. We have a pair of capable offenses here, and a total that is being held down on reputation and not reality. The Niners' reputation for defense has not lived up to the billing, as they are 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight at home. Under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are 34-22 OVER as an underdog and 32-21 OVER following a loss. Go with the OVER.