This Pro Pick was released to clients on September 25, 2026 at 1:27PM ET.
img NFL

Houston at Indianapolis

September 27, 2026
img1:00 PM Eastern

Houston and Indianapolis are both winless, but the question is which defense has been the bigger problem. Indianapolis has allowed 37 points a game through two weeks, a figure padded by a 41-point night against Baltimore and a shootout loss to Kansas City in which the Colts still gave up 33. Houston's defense has had its own rough patches, but at 28 points allowed a game, that's nine points a game better than what Indianapolis is surrendering. Houston's offense hasn't been sharp either, averaging under 19 points a game, but it doesn't need to be against a defense that gives up more than 35 a game on its worst days. Indianapolis has shown signs of life offensively, scoring 30 on Kansas City last week, but it still lost, and the defense couldn't get a stop when it mattered most. I want to be on the side with the lesser of two defensive problems. Back the Texans.

1.5 units on Houston -1 (-115) (risk 1.5 to return 2.8)
Result:
LOSS
Final
1
2
3
4
F
Houston Texans
0
7
0
10
17
Indianapolis Colts img
3
10
0
6
19
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
TAKE THE GUESSWORK OUT OF SPORTS BETTING

Get free NFL Picks

I pore over the data, injuries, news, and odds every morning.
You get the best bets delivered to your inbox.