2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 23, 2008
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Houston at Cleveland
Sunday 11/23 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Houston +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
3 units on Game Total UNDER 50.5 -110 (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
The playoff chase for these teams has become a long shot at best. Each have had disappointing seasons to date, and will be fighting for a win here to keep some hope alive. Houston has struggled to be the same offense from last year. They produced 30+ points four times last season, but just once this season. While the offense has been productive at home, where they average 26.3 ppg, they have managed to be an ordinary offensive team on the road, where they are scoring just 20.8 ppg. It has always been a problem for this team, as they have now managed just 18.6 ppg on the road in their last 12. This is the reason the Browns are laying a field goal in this game. But, do the Browns really deserve to be favored? They won a nailbiter vs. Buffalo on Monday Night but despite a 4-0 turnover advantage, they nearly lost the game. This team seems to find ways to lose this year (a total reverse from last year). The Browns are 1-4 at home and have the kind of defense that will allow Sage Rosenfels to get comfortable. I like the points in a game that can easily go either way. I also like the UNDER in this one. The Browns have produced high scoring games of late, but the numbers may be a bit misleading. It took late game flourishes in their last two to produce high finals as 27 and 28 points were scored in the 4th quarter. These teams played in Cleveland last year to a similar total over 50, and played to a 44-point finish. I look for a similar game here. I'll back the Texans and the UNDER here.