This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 10:36AM ET.
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Green Bay at Tampa Bay

November 16, 2003
img4:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on Green Bay +4 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)

Don’t read too much into Green Bay losing at home last week. Philly was in a good spot as I mentioned in last week’s newsletter. The combination of a tape-covered splint and pouring rain put a damper on Favre’s game. Green Bay will be fired up for this game as it is their first meeting since Tampa’s 21-7 win last year. In that game, Warren Sapp disrespected Green Bay head coach Mike Sherman in a heated post-game confrontation that was played over and over on national television. The Packers players will do everything they can to avoid another loss and stick up for their coach and for their teammate Chad Clifton whose season was ended by a vicious hit by Sapp in that game. Tampa Bay is hard to read this year but they could very well be flat in this game after losing their last two and losing any real chance at winning their division. They have fallen hard fast and after winning the Super Bowl last year, don’t have much to play for right now except their battered pride. If Ahman Green can hang on to the ball (a big if!), he’ll have a big game against a Bucs defense that is downright horrible against the run. After his two-fumble performance on Monday night, I’d be surprised if Green isn’t holding on to the ball with two hands on every single play. Will Green get 100 yards? Likely. What does that mean? The Pack are 19-2 when Green rushes for 100 yards or more. The Packers qualify for a trend that is 38-11 against the spread (4-1 this year and 16-5 the last three years) involving teams that out-gain their opponents on the ground by a wide margin. Games between these two teams have historically been close and I expect that to be the case on Sunday. This could go either way so I’ll take the four points, a great running game and some special motivation.


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