2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 09, 2011

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

09

Green Bay at Philadelphia

Sunday 01/09 04:30 PM Eastern

4 units on Philadelphia PICK () (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: loss

3 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

The Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles get together for a rematch of their season opener which the Packers won 27-20. A lot has changed since that game. The Eagles opened the season with Kevin Kolb at QB. His sub-par performance opened the door for Michael Vick who has put together an amazing comeback season. Vick added another dimension to a skilled offense with lots of playmakers with his precision passing and his ability to avoid the rush. When he came in the game, the Eagles offense began to flourish, and their season took an immediate turn for the better. When playing his "A" game, he represents one of the league's truly unstoppable forces. A lot has changed for the Packers as well. Lost in that first game was Ryan Grant, and the Packers offense has had trouble running the ball since. They later would lose Jermichael Finley, a key offensive weapon. The Packers have more players on IR than any team in the league at 15, and a QB that has suffered two concussions this season already. Since coming back from the second severe blow to the head, Rodgers has not been as effective running the ball. The Eagles regain the services of Asante Samuel in this game and that makes them better against the pass which is all Green Bay does for the most part. Philly is 7-2 this season vs. good QBs (those completing 61%+).  The Packers have struggled in Wild Card playoff games at 0-4 ATS in their last four, and just 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff games. Andy Reid is 36-16 ATS revenging a loss including 18-9 ATS if that loss was at home. We all expected Green Bay to be a force this year but it just hasn't come together and winning on the road in Philly is going to be a very tall task. They have an elite quarterback, but no running game and a lot of injuries. They are 3-5 on the road this season and I can't see them grabbing the win here. The Packers are 18-7-1 to the OVER following a game where they scored 15 or less. The Eagles are on a 35-15-1 run to the OVER vs. a team with a winning record and they are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 overall. In expected close games (-3 to +3), the Eagles are 18-8 to the OVER the past three seasons. Since last season, they are 9-2 OVER after an UNDER. I expect a lot of Aaron Rodgers, more Michael Vick, and the Eagles winning and covering in a high-scoring game.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Packers 7 7 7 0 21
Eagles 0 3 7 6 16

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