2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 09, 2008

09

Green Bay at Minnesota

Sunday 11/09 01:00 PM Eastern

5 units on Green Bay +2.5 (-102) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: WIN

The Packers have to be the best team in the NFL that isn't over the .500 mark, and they certainly have the Vikings number. The line is based heavily on the results from last week. The Vikings got two late turnovers in the red-zone to stave off the Texans, who outplayed them. The Packers torched the so-called best defense in the NFL for over 400 yards, 300+ in the air, and 100+ on the ground, on the road at Tennessee. The wrong team won that one. But, Tennessee gets the credit and the Packers are written off. Flip the results of last week (not hard to see Houston and Green Bay winning), and the Packers are favored by a field goal here. So the value is there on the surface. Dig deeper and it becomes more apparent.  If Aaron Rodgers can put up over 300 yards on the Titans secondary, what will he do against Minnesota? The Packers have done what no other team has been able to do against the Vikings, and that is run behind their very good offensive line. They got 140 on the ground in the opener, and 120 in their last game last season. The Vikings have been walking on egg-shells when they even win a game, barely getting past winless Detroit 12-10 at home, needing a bunch of turnovers to get past new Orleans and Houston. The fact is, without some bounces of the ball, Minnesota loses all three of those games and sits at 1-7 on the season. The Packers are an excellent team that is underrated. They are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 division games and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games. They take care of the ball, and in turn, will take care of the Vikings easily here.

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