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2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 18, 2011

18

Green Bay at Kansas City

Sunday 12/18 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Kansas City PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

I heard some round tables this week and one TV pundit declared the Packers the best team of all time. As those of you who read my blog article know, I am not in that camp. The Packers may have the best QB of all time when all is said and done, but this team is far from the best all time. When your defense has been hovering around the bottom of the league all season, and you are outgaining opponents by just 10 yards per game, there's a lot of room for improvement. The Packers have cashed in on an opportunistic defense, and a mistake-free QB. However, laying two touchdowns on the road when the line of scrimmage is nearly even is fraught with risk. Kansas City has beaten three teams at .500 or better over the last eight weeks, and two of those came on the road. The Packers have not been good in this spot as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road favorite of -10.5 or more, while the Chiefs have excelled in this spot at 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a dog of +10.5 or more. I am not scared off by the coaching change in KC. In fact it may help as players feel like they are getting a fresh start - a good thing for a bad team. The Chiefs should be lose here as they have absolutely nothing to lose at this point. Take the Chiefs with the points.

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