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2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 24, 2011

24

Green Bay at Detroit

Thursday 11/24 12:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Detroit PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: win

The Green Bay Packers have been unbeatable over their last 16 games and are off to a 10-0 start this season. Can this team run the table? The notion of perfection has increased as the wins mount. I think that answer will be clearer after the next two weeks when the Lions and Giants take a shot at them. Detroit has risen from the ashes of the worst team in football over the past five years to utilize their futility and turn top draft picks into quality NFL players. The Lions are 7-3 and appear to be playoff bound. After seven indigestion-filled Thanksgiving losses both straight-up and ATS, the Lions will be looking for an Alka-Seltzer free Thanksgiving meal. The Packers have some chinks in the armor. Their defense has been poor against the pass all season and their stats defy a 10-0 team as they have outgained opponents by less than 20 yards per game, which doesn't equate to a 10-0 team. Their offensive line is highly suspect, especially without veteran Chad Clifton. The Lions are a good pressure-defense and are very solid against the pass. QB Matt Stafford has quietly thrown more TD passes than all but opposing QB Aaron Rogers with 25. The total here is about as high as it gets for an NFL game. Quite often these track meet looking games never materialize, as each offense tries to reduce the opponents’ time on the field. Since 1980 there have been just 10 games with a total of 53 or higher from Week 8 on that features a home underdog (discounting garbage time in weeks 16-17), and 9 of the 10 have come up short of the total. The Packers defense is bad (392 yards per game) and they are vulnerable to the run, so I look for Detroit to grind-out drives on the ground to shorten the game. They defend the pass and get pressure which should also slow down the Packers’ attack. That strategy has led them to an 11-5 UNDER mark in their last 16 on the road. The Lions have also played five of their last seven at home UNDER the total. Detroit should be sky high for this game (it's been a long time since they fielded a competitive team on Thanksgiving). I expect them to play well enough to stay inside this number. Take Detroit and the UNDER in this one.

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Last 20.0 years

Wins Losses Units
2322 2038 +202.55

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