2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 22, 2008

22

Green Bay at Chicago

Monday 12/22 08:35 PM Eastern

2 units on Green Bay +4.5 (-115) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

The Bears have renewed playoff hopes thanks to the Vikings loss yesterday, giving folks an easy reason to back them tonight laying a small number vs. a 5-9 team. But the fact that they needed that Minnesota loss tells us something, doesn't it? The Bears didn't win enough games to begin with. The Packers have been losing with regularity, and certainly have nothing to play for here. Or do they? This is a heated Black-and-Blue division rivalry. Last year the Packers lost three games and two of those were to the Bears. They now have a chance to take their rival out of the playoff picture, and will be playing loose and free, but also with purpose. The Bears were stopping the run early in the season. But since week 11, when Ryan Grant trampled the Bears for 145 yards, the only team that the Bears stopped on the ground was St. Louis without Steven Jackson! All other teams have run for 100+ yards vs. the Bears. If Grant does what every back has done against the Bears since his big game, then Rodgers is likely to have a big game, as he has thrown for 250 yards in every game since that first Bears game. Chicago needs the game, but that doesn't mean they will get it. Heck, didn't Denver need to win yesterday? What about Philadelphia? What about Minnesota? Dallas? This is essentially the Packers Superbowl game - tonight. They would love nothing more than to put the Bears into hibernation until next year and given that it's a Monday Night primtetime game, I would be surprised at a no-show from the Pack. Kyle Orton has never shown to be a pressure QB, and although the Packers secondary has been picked apart lately, a couple of off-target throws by Orton, and the Bears are gonna be looking up at a scoreboard filled with Green Bay lights. Collins, Williams and Woodson each have five INT's, and the Pack has taken seven errant throws back for scores this season. Green Bay has won just once in their last seven games, but it was a 37-3 domination of the Bears. This looks somewhat like the opposite of last year, when the Packers lost three times with two coming to the Bears. Can the Packers make it just two wins in their last eight games, and both to the Bears? The same Packers defense that was struggling held Orton to 133 yards and Forte to 64 in game one. As I mentioned in my blog this week, I believe the Packers to be a better team than their record indicates (simply a very unlucky one this year). I'll back the Packers here to play an inspired game, and the Bears to be tight. I'm taking the points and the Pack here.

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