2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 25, 2011
Detroit at Minnesota
Sunday 09/25 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Minnesota PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
The Lions hype machine is rolling with steam. They were the sexy presason "surprise" pick and their record is spotless in 10 straight games, going back to the final four of last season. They ran the table in the NFLX, and started the regular season 2-0. Last game they made a 48-3 statement and the public is listening. The oddsmakers have responded to all the ink the Lions have been getting, and have installed them as a -3.5 point favorite at Minnesota. The public doesn't seem to care, as they are pounding the Lions at over 70%. Sorry but I'm here to give you reasons to reconsider jumping on that bandwagon full-tilt. This is a Detroit team that is 7-47 straight-up on the road in their last 54 road games. Three of those seven wins were by 3, 3 and 1 point, so basically they have won four of their last 54 by more than 3. The Vikings are 0-2 and let both games slip away. It's not quite panic time but they are desparately in need of a win this week and I expect their best effort of the season. They had San Diego on the ropes before losing by 7, and Tampa Bay down 17-0 before imploding after that point. We could be looking at a 2-0 team here and a much different line. This Lions team is in a new role as that of a road favorite, one they haven't embraced. They are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 as road chalk including 0-8 in their last eight, while the Vikings are churning out winners as home dogs of +3.5 to +10 at 7-3 ATS in their last 10. Take the Vikings as a live home dog.