2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 21, 2010

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

21

Detroit at Dallas

Sunday 11/21 01:00 PM Eastern

5 units on Detroit PICK () (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: loss

4 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: loss

The Dallas Cowboys made a couple changes last week. They fired Wade Phillips, and they (finally) showed some professionalism and pride. It resulted in a big win - only their second of the season. So now a 2-7 team deserves to be a touchdown favorite vs. a team that has gone 7-1 ATS this year? I don't think so. America's team is being over-valued here. Last week the Cowboys game against the Giants turned with Dallas up 9-3, and the Giants going in for the go ahead score, when Eli Manning threw a 101 yard pick-6. That turned a potential 10-9 Giant lead to a 16-3 deficit. It could be considered a 14 point turnover. The Giants were also burned on a 71 yard TD pass. While Dallas was certainly the right side of that game last week (we were on them), the final score showing a 13-point win is a bit misleading. Dallas was outagined by over 50 yards in the game, and the Giants had the ball for nearly 38 minutes to the Cowboys 22. The G-men also had 10 more first downs than Dallas. That kind of boxscore usually shows a loss, not a 13 point win. That was a huge game for Dallas (new coach, hated rival, no respect, etc). But this game won't get the full attention in the same way. And, we've seen what Dallas has done this year when they aren't into it. One week does not make a season and I believe Dallas has a lot more to prove before they start laying touchdown spreads. Since week three, the Lions have played games vs. top NFL teams in the Jets, Giants and Packers, and lost by a combined 13 points. The Lions once inept defense is coming of age as they have allowed just 93 regulation points in the last five weeks (18.6 ppg). The Dallas offense is a shell of what it was, as they have scored 19 ppg the last three weeks. Detroit has not lost to anyone since week three by more than 8 points. The Cowboys have lost their home games by 10 points per game on average. I like the Lions plus the points. I also like the UNDER. Dallas has played 18-8 to the UNDER in their last 26 games vs. losing teams. Detroit has gone 65-41 UNDER in their last 106 games vs. losing teams including 16-6 UNDER in their last 22 home games vs. bad teams (.250 or worse). Dallas is 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. I like the UNDER here and also Detroit as my NFL Game of the Month.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Lions 0 10 9 0 19
Cowboys 7 0 14 14 35

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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