2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 14, 2014

This pick was released to clients on September 11, 2014 at 1:37PM ET.


Detroit at Carolina

Sunday 09/14 01:00 PM Eastern

1 unit on Detroit +2.5 (-105) (risk 1 to return 1.95)  RESULT: loss

1 unit on Game Total OVER 43.5 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95)  RESULT: loss

The Carolina Panthers got a huge effort from backup QB Derek Anderson last week. It is hard to imagine that Cam Newton could have done any better as Anderson went 24-for-34 with two TDs and 230 yards. The problem is that the Panthers also had a +3 turnover margin and still won by just 6 points. While not a huge Jim Caldwell fan, he is an upgrade for Detroit and the Lions could be a pleasant surprise this season. I'm not basing that on beating a frustrated and talentless New York Giants team on Monday night in front of an amped-up home crowd. Rather I like the talent on both sides of the ball, combined finally with a coaching staff that can put them in position to win instead of lose. Calvin Johnson is unguard-able, and his numbers certainly back that up. Detroit has the makings of a very strong defense, holding the Giants to under 200 total yards -  a number Johnson almost reached himself. If the Lions make fewer mistakes, and their defense now ups the ante, this team is going to have one of the best records in the NFL this season. And if I am right, this game will have tremendous value. The Lions are in a 30-10 ATS week two situation, and they get my money here. Take Detroit. The Lions scored 21 points at Arizona, 31 at Cleveland and 27 in Pittsburgh last year - all pretty good defensive teams. And, they gave up 19 or more in six of their road games. Detroit is also 34-16-2 to the OVER in their last 52 games vs. winning teams as well as 14-2 to the OVER in their last 16 overall. Detroit is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Carolina, and just one of those managed to stay UNDER the total. Take Detroit and the OVER here.

Lions 0 0 7 0 7
Panthers 0 6 7 11 24



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

with detailed analysis