2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 16, 2008
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Denver at Atlanta
Sunday 11/16 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Game Total UNDER 52 -115 (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
Denver continues to draw large totals despite the obvious fact that the offense that was scoring at will early on has faltered in five of the last six weeks. The average points put up in the first three weeks was 37.7 ppg. But in the last six, it has produced less than half of that - 18.3 ppg! Totals over the 50 mark should not go to teams with potential, but should rather be reserved for teams that are achieving that potential. Denver clearly is not. The Falcons are a vastly improved team and there is no doubt what they are going to do here. They have faced five teams that rank defensively 22nd or worse in the league. Against those teams, they averaged over 200 rushing yards. Think they'll be running the ball here? You bet - early and often. That should help them control the clock and keep the Denver offense to limited opportunities, shortening the game. Denver's defense has been bad this season and you can bet it got a lot of attention during the bye week. This sets up as a high valued UNDER play to an already inflated total.