2003 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 28, 2003

28

Dallas at New Orleans

Sunday 12/28 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on New Orleans +1.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)  RESULT: WIN

Assuming Philly wins on Saturday, Dallas will not have a chance at winning the NFC East and getting home field advantage. Yes, Dallas will want some momentum going into the playoffs, but it won’t be enough to ensure a win on Sunday after having their home-field bubble burst. New Orleans really wants to finish the season on a high-note to end the year at 8-8 which is a lot easier pill to swallow than 7-9. Dallas plays much worse on the road. They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and just 4-13 ATS on the road following a great defensive performance (allowing less than 10 points). Meanwhile, the Saints play the dog role well, going 4-1 ATS their last five when getting points. My Matchup Power Ratings tell us this spread is all wrong. New Orleans, at home, should actually be giving around a field goal. Parcells has the Cowboys playing above their heads but statistically, they aren’t really better than the Saints.

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