2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 04, 2011
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Dallas at Arizona
Sunday 12/04 04:15 PM Eastern
2 units on Arizona PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
The Dallas Cowboys hold the lead in the NFC East, but nothing has come easy for this team this season. After a dreadful 2010 season that saw the NFC favorite go 6-10, they have put a few more in the win column this season, but it hasn't been easy. The Cowboys are pretty fortunate to come into this game at 7-4, as that mark could easily be reversed at 4-7. Dallas has won two games in overtime, and a pair of others by 2 points and 1 point. The fact is that this team is 9 points away from being 3-8. Dallas has been particularly vulnerable on the road where they are -28 in net points. Their two road wins have come by 3 points each. On the road this season they own a losing record, getting outscored by 6 points per game. The Cowboys have not won a road game by more than 3 points since November 14th, 2010 so taking more than a field goal in this one is full of line value. There is one glaring consistency and that is the Cowboys have not played defense on the road the same way they do at home. Last year in their last six road games they allowed 27.3 points per game. This year in five road games it has gotten worse at 29.8 ppg. Arizona is +28 in net points in their last six at home with a 4-2 straight-up record. One of those four wins was in Week 16 against these same Cowboys. They scored 27 points - the fourth most all season. Dallas is 0-7 ATS since last season when facing bad teams (.400 or worse). Over that same span they are 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (they simply underperform when they are expected to win). The Cowboys are now 2-10 ATS in their last 12 favored by -3.5 to -10 points. The Cardinals are 15-5-1 as a dog from +3.5 to +10. Fade Dallas here.