Dallas at Arizona

I cashed a unit on Dallas's moneyline in the preseason opener last week, and the setup for a repeat looks familiar tonight. Brian Schottenheimer has been blunt: his regulars, Dak Prescott included, will not take the field in any of Dallas's three preseason games, and that plan has not wavered heading into Arizona. Arizona's own approach has capped its starters at a drive or two all summer, and its top skill players are already banged up or on limited snaps: Jeremiyah Love is out with an ankle injury, and Trey McBride has barely touched the field through two weeks of preseason. Two offenses without their most explosive names, leaning on backups still auditioning for roster spots, is not a combination built for a track meet. Dallas still has not settled its own backup quarterback race between Sam Howell and Joe Milton, and whoever gets the call has looked sharp enough in camp that Dallas could be live on the road even without its starters. Both trends point in the same direction: a controlled, lower-scoring game with a live long shot buried underneath it. The UNDER is the strongest number, and I expect it to cash with room to spare. Dallas's moneyline goes along for free as the speculative piece.