2018 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 28, 2018
This pick was released to clients on October 29, 2021 at 2:33PM ET.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Sunday 10/28 01:00 PM Eastern
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 49 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: LOSS
This division-rivalry has a history of low-scoring affairs. In the last 54 meetings, the OVER has only hit 21 times (39%). The highest total in those 54 games was less than the total for this game on Sunday. Only 10 times has the total in this matchup exceeded 43 points, and in those 10 games, the UNDER has hit eight times. It is always intriguing to play the OVER/UNDER with Ben Roethlisberger at QB. He looks to throw downfield often, but his biggest issue has been interceptions (15 last year, six so far this year). Baker Mayfield has been an exciting rookie to watch, but he has less than an 80 passer rating overall and just one more touchdown than interceptions since becoming the starter. This creates some broken possessions on both sides of the ball. Big Ben has gone 31-21 to the UNDER in his last 52 starts. The last 13 games without an overtime between these two teams have gone 10-2-1 to the UNDER. When the Steelers play poor defensive teams, the totals get over-adjusted. They are 13-2 to the UNDER the past three seasons vs. teams like Cleveland that allow 350+ yards per game. Finally, since 2008, the Browns have gone UNDER the total nearly 60% of the time (44-64) as a dog of a field goal or more. Make the play on the UNDER in this game.
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