2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 17, 2010

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

17

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Sunday 10/17 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: WIN

Cleveland can't possibly score in this game, right? Let's see. The Steelers have to be excited. They managed to go 3-1 without Big Ben. The offense has struggled but they have still won. With Ben Roethlisberger back, this team is going to be a force. Their defense is well noted around the league and they have kept opponents to just 12.5 ppg this season. But it's interesting to note that they have allowed more points in every game this season than they allowed in the previous game. Cleveland scored just 78 points through their first nine games a year ago for an average of just 8.7 per game. But since then, in their last twelve games, they have averaged 20.4 ppg - nearly a two-touchdown improvement! So, a brutal offense has been upgraded to average. Here is something that most would never believe because Pittsburgh has been classified as a defensive team forever. The last 77 home games the Steelers have played have seen the OVER prevail to a 50-24-3 mark, or 67.6% of all home games! That is the highest percentage in the league over that period. The line is always weighted low given Pitt's reputation. These teams have also been on an OVER trend, as just one of the last eight played have played UNDER the total. I expect Pittsburgh with Big Ben to score here and Cleveland will get enough to help this one OVER the total. 
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Browns 3 0 0 7 10
Steelers 0 7 7 14 28

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