2016 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 23, 2016
This pick was released to clients on October 22, 2021 at 1:26PM ET.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Sunday 10/23 01:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Cleveland +11 (-107) (risk 1.5 to return 2.9) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total OVER 46.5 -108 (risk 1 to return 1.93) RESULT: win
It is so difficult for a bettor to wrap around a team that is winless, and in the case of this game, that points to the Cleveland Browns, who are off to a brutal 0-6 start to their season. That typically means they are going to be given some padding on the point spread to entice some action on them, or at least deter action on their opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals. The proof lies in the fact that once a team gets to 0-4 in the NFL, playing on them is 148-106-7 ATS or a winner 58.3% of the time. The Bengals are certainly not a team without issues, as indicated by their own 2-4 start. The culprit in this case is a defense that allowed more than 24 points in a game a year ago, and one that is also averaging more than that this season through six games. I pointed that out because the Browns offense has been better, and the clincher is this: A team getting to 20 points as a 10 point dog is 49-6-3 ATS. If they get to 17, they are 61-18-3 ATS, get to 14 and they are 68-28-4 ATS. Odds makers have this one as 28-18. So by their own algorithms, they are saying Cleveland is the valued side by plenty here. These two defenses average 27 points per game allowed between them (54 points if taken together). In October games, the Bengals are 33-19 OVER since the arrival of Marvin Lewis. Make the play on Cleveland and the OVER.
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