2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 17, 2008
Cleveland at Buffalo
Monday 11/17 08:35 PM Eastern
4 units on Cleveland +5 (-108) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
It was six weeks into the season and the whispers around Buffalo had the words "Superbowl" mixed in. The Bills have subsequently fallen hard. They have not won a game in three straight weeks, and overall have now dropped four of five, getting outscored in the process 126-83. The offense that was scoring 27.3 ppg in a 4-0 start but has not produced that many points in any of their last five. Trent Edwards has been very erratic in his last three games, tossing two TD passes and five INT's. The Bills offense has found the end-zone just three times in the last three weeks, and last week not until there was 1:48 left in the game. The Browns, meanwhile, are finally hitting their offensive stride. Brady Quinn was impressive in his debut vs the Broncos, putting up 30 points, and throwing for two TD passes. He's now had another week to prepare with the first team (11 days actually). The Browns, unlike Buffalo, are peaking offensively right now, as they have put up 25.2 ppg in their last five after scoring 11.5 ppg in their first four. The Browns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, and have flourished in this role. They are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. winning teams and 1-22 ATS under Romeo Crennel when coming off a bad defensive performance (having allowed 30+ last game). The Bills are severely leaking oil and should not be a favorite right now, as they simply haven't played a good football game in over a month. I'll take the Browns here on the road as a dog, where they have been money.