2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 23, 2007
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Cincinnati at Seattle
Sunday 09/23 04:05 PM Eastern
3 units on Cincinnati +3 (+105) (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
3 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110 (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
Wow! Did that Bengals-Browns game really happen last week? Did Cleveland, behind Derek Anderson, really roll up 51 points on Cincinnati? Yeah, it happened. And now oddsmakers and the betting public are overracting drastically to one game. All of a sudden the Bengals get no respect, and the total in this game goes to a sky-high 50. Carson and company are getting 3.5 points from a team that lost outright last week as a favorite to Arizona. After an embarrassment like that, we think the Bengals defense comes to play here. Their pride was wounded and they will not lay down again and play that bad two weeks in a row. Let's not forget what this Bengals offense is capable of. Carson Palmer is in the conversation when discussing the league's best quarterback. He has two amazing receivers and a top-tier running back. He threw for 401 yards and six touchdowns last game. He can win you the close games. You could say that Seattle gave away the game last week with their late fumble. But, they were soundly beaten, down by 17 points at one point. Under coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 12-4 ATS off a game in which they scored 30+ points including a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road. Seattle is just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Last year in Cincinnati road games, the final score did not top 50 once. The Bengals are in fact 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 road games with a total of 46 or higher. Seattle has played 11 games over the last several years with a posted total at home of over 44 and just once did it make it over the total. Unlike Cleveland, the Seahawks won't want to get into a shootout with Cincinnati. They know they are likely in trouble in that kind of game. Coach Holmgren will look to grind it out with Alexander, knowing that a short clock burning game is the most likely road to a Seahawks victory. We love the overreaction to last week's most surprising game and as such, we'll take both Cincinnati and the UNDER here.