Cincinnati at Miami

Miami is 0-4 and averages 11.5 points, the fewest in the league, and both of my bets on this game depend on that number going up. Cincinnati allows 21.3 points per game, more than any of the four defenses Miami has faced (Las Vegas, San Francisco, Kansas City, and Minnesota), which average 17.3. The Dolphins gain 5.1 yards per play, higher than Philadelphia, Tennessee, Washington, the Giants, and Minnesota, and all five of those teams score more than Miami. Cincinnati has Dexter Lawrence II and B.J. Hill Questionable on the defensive line. The Bengals’ own offense is why I’m also on the OVER: Joe Burrow threw 54 times for 428 yards against Jacksonville last week, and Miami has three cornerbacks out, including Reese Taylor and Storm Duck. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are questionable, and the Bengals are 2-2 with margins of +6, +14, -3, and -5. Miami has been -14, -22, -14, and -5, and the five-point loss came at Minnesota, the toughest defense it's faced. Back Miami with the points and the OVER Sunday.