2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
August 27, 2007
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Cincinnati at Atlanta
Monday 08/27 12:00 AM Eastern
3 units on Atlanta PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
While already at +3.5 at some books, this line is +3 with -125 to -135 juice (instead of standard -110) at most books right now. The line might officially move at yours to +3.5 by game time but if not, buy the 1/2 point to get +3.5 laying -115 juice.
Marvin Lewis seems to have changed this year in the preseason. Prior to this year, his Bengals had won 67% of their games (8-4). This year Cincinnati is 0-2. He may be going through a process in which he changes his thought process as he and his team matures. Winning in the preseason becomes less important while keeping players healthy and focusing on the "games that count" becomes more important. Tonight the Bengals lay points on the road and we think they don't cover this spread. This game is Bobby Petrino's first prime-time exposure. This is Atlanta's first home game this season. We think he wants to win this game in front of the nation and his home crowd. Yes, the Bengals are the better team (at least on offense). But, their defense is showing signs of being awful. They have allowed 27 points in each of the first two preseason games. That's a lot of points in the regular season. In the preseason, it's through the roof. On offense, Cincinnati's calling card is their passing game. Offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski said his focus this week is, instead, running the ball which is good for Atlanta. In addition to Petrino's personal motivation, we think that Atlanta players want to win this game. They are sick of all of the questions about Michael Vick. Can they win without him? They would like to make a statement here - "yes we can." Even the Bengals acknowledge this fact. "I think it's going to be good for them. They're going to want to show they can play without him (Vick)... It could be the kind fo game where one team is goign to be playing full of emotion. It's like the game where Carson came back last year and we crushed Green Bay just on emotion," said Bengals DT John Thornton this week. An Atlanta win puts them one step further away from Vick. A loss, especially a big one, keeps the "can you win without Vick" questions coming. Take the more motivated home dog with 3 and the hook.