2016 Season NFL Football Past Picks
August 18, 2016
This pick was released to clients on August 20, 2021 at 2:55PM ET.
Chicago at New England
Thursday 08/18 08:00 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Chicago +4 (-115) (risk 1.5 to return 2.8) RESULT: WIN
Chicago has plenty to prove, off an embarrassing home shutout loss to the defending champs. Since 1983, NFL teams off a preseason shutout loss are 35-24 SU and 35-23-1 ATS the following game. Two years ago the Texas were shut out at Arizona in Week 1, 32-0, and the next week won 32-7 at home vs. the Falcons. The 49ers were shut out in Week 2, 34-0 at home by Denver, then won 21-7 next week at San Diego. Three years ago the Packers were shut out at home in Week 1, 17-0 by Arizona, and the next week they won and covered 19-7 at the Rams. The Bears have a very good August QB rotation with talent and experience in Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Connor Shaw. John Fox wants to see more from a first-team offense that produced 13 yards (12 on one play) and zero points on three possessions last week. Some great news is that receivers Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White and Joshua Bellamy will see more time and have had strong practices this week. New England won't use Tom Brady much, if at all, and has young QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Jacoby Brissett. The Pats put up 34 points on the Saints last week. It's good to fade a home team off a home win scoring 30 points or more, going 36-22 ATS since 1983. The last time it happened was a year ago when Carolina beat Miami at home, 31-30, then the next week lost at home to the Patriots, 17-16. Go with the Bears.
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