2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 20, 2010

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

20

Chicago at Minnesota

Monday 12/20 08:35 PM Eastern

5 units on Minnesota PICK () (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: loss

5 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: win

In my humble opinion, there is an over-reaction going on here. Despite laying a touchdown on the road, the public believes the Bears will cover this spread. Yes, Joe Webb will be at QB for the Vikings and the game has been moved outdoors. This game will be in the single digits and snowy but heck, isn't this how football used to be played all the time? The Vikings have played their last 23 home games going off as the favorite in 20 of them. In those 23, they were never an underdog of more than 4.5 points. But now they are getting a full touchdown at home against a team that has been outscored in their last three games by 7 points per game. Is Joe Webb really a downgrade vs. Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson? Maybe, but maybe not! The Vikings two QB's this season have been bad, throwing a combined 13 TD passes to 22 INT's, and neither posted a QB rating of even 70. There are only two starting quarterbacks in the NFL (Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen) who have lower QB ratings than Favre and Jackson. So while we don't expect a lot from Webb, it probably won't be much worse than what we have seen all season from the QB position for the Vikes, and it may in fact be better. It may force the Vikings to rely more on Adrian Peterson which is a good idea and something they should have been doing all season long. The Bears are just 7-27 ATS in their last 34 December road games. Yes, they beat Minnesota earliier this season 27-13. But, the Vikes are 10-2 ATS their last 12 times revenging a 14+ loss. They are also 20-8 ATS their last 28 revenging a loss in which they scored under two touchdowns. Lovie Smith has never been good after a home game, going 19-30 ATS in that situation. The Bears have now been out-gained 1175-845 oer their last three games, an average of over 100 yards per game! This is a rivalry game and we have a home dog seeking revenge. I expect a close game. I also like the OVER here. It will be cold and snowy tonight for this game. But despite conventional wisdom, those aren't factors in NFL totals. In fact, game temperature and precipitation barely affect overall scoring at all. The factor that does affect scoring is wind and the that won't be a factor here as it is expected to be blowing from the East at just 11 MPH. The Bears have produced 20 or more points in eight of their last twelve games. And, the defense is beginning to wear down. This team allowed 20 or more points in just two of their first ten games but they have allowed 20+ in each of their last three. In those three games, they have allowed an average of 26 points per game which is more than they allowed in any single game over their first 10. My computer matchup for this game predicts a low-scoring game with the Vikings hanging within the spread. I like the Vikings to find a way to score enough points to keep this game close, and push it OVER the total. Remember, risk no more than 5% of your bankroll on any single bet.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Bears 10 7 20 3 40
Vikings 7 0 7 0 14

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