Chicago at Cincinnati

Cincinnati is expected to give Joe Burrow another short look tonight, similar to the two series he played last week, before turning things over for good. Chicago already tipped its hand in the opener, sitting Caleb Williams behind Tyson Bagent, and Ben Johnson has openly said Williams will see only a little work again tonight. So most of both offenses tonight belongs to the backups, and that's where this favors Chicago more than the market wants to admit. Bagent is banged up with a hamstring injury and is questionable, but his fill-in, Case Keenum, was outstanding in relief last week, completing nearly every throw with a pair of touchdowns. Cincinnati's answer once Burrow exits is a mix of Josh Johnson and Sean Clifford, journeyman arms with far less recent command of an NFL huddle than Keenum showed last week. That edge at backup quarterback is the case for Chicago holding its own tonight. The same setup pushes me toward the total. Backup-heavy offenses running behind backup-heavy defensive fronts tend to produce broken coverages and free access to the end zone, not a defensive struggle. Chicago getting the points is my headline release tonight, and I like it comfortably, with the OVER riding along.