2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 07, 2016
This pick was released to clients on February 02, 2016 at 6:25PM ET.
Carolina vs. Denver
Sunday 02/07 06:30 PM Eastern
2.5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -300 (risk 2.5 to return 3.33) RESULT: WIN
In 49 Super Bowls, there have been 15 scoreless quarters in 14 games. That equates to a scoreless quarter occurring 28.6% of the time. So, based on those numbers, fair odds based on a NO bet here is -200. The oddsmakers are setting this line at -300 so theres no value right? Wrong! Of course, that's not the whole story. Things have changed dramatically and the oddsmakers haven't taken notice, again. The early Super Bowls were more defensive than the current era. Todays NFL is about scoring! The first 20 Super Bowls averaged 41.9 points per game while the last 25 have averaged 50.2 per game. That's a 19.8% increase in points per game. And that increase in scoring, of course, reduces the chances of a scoreless quarter. So we would expect to see fewer of these occurring as time goes on, and that's exactly what we see. Seven of the first eleven Super Bowls (64%) had a scoreless quarter. That leaves only seven games with a scoreless quarter in the last 38 Super Bowls (18.4%)! If we assume the modern era rate of 81.6% of games without a scoreless quarter, the fair odds on a NO bet are -445. So at -300 we are getting a tremendous overlay. Take the NO on this bet and expect to win this one four out of every five Super Bowls!
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