This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 3:29PM ET.
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Carolina at St. Louis

January 10, 2004
img4:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
4 units on St. Louis -7 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)

The Rams are a perfect 8-0 and 6-1-1 vs. spread at home this year. They are well rested and facing a Panthers team that struggles to score points but boasts a tough run defense and excellent running game. Carolina averaged just 20 points per game during the regular season. The Panthers are the weakest of this weekend’s teams in my opinion. If they were playing any of the other three playoff home teams, I think the spread would be (or should be) over 10 points. This one will come down to the situation. The Panthers’ average margin of victory on the road this year? 1 point. The Rams at home have outscored opponents this year by an average of 17 points. How is Carolina’s defense (ranked 28th in the league against the pass) going to handle this well-rested and motivated Rams offense? As long as the Rams don’t turn the ball over more than once, I think they’ll cover this number.

Wunderdog’s systems and trends for this game:
+Semi-finals system #1 (36-9 ATS): Picks Rams
+Semi-finals system #2 (7-0 ATS): No Pick
+Matchup Power Ratings: Picks Carolina
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Rams:
---4 trends with 60%-69% ATS record
---4 trends with 70%-79% ATS record
---3 trends with 80%-89% ATS record
+Semi-finals historical trends favoring the Panthers: None


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