2003 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 01, 2004

This pick was released to clients on August 15, 2012 at 5:37PM ET.

01

Carolina at New England

Sunday 02/01 06:25 PM Eastern

4 units on New England -7 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)  RESULT: loss

4 units on Game Total OVER 38 +110 (risk 4 to return 8.4)  RESULT: win

While I usually don’t pick a lot of Totals, I have an opinion in this game. I’ll admit it isn’t based on a super-thorough analysis but rather on a few key trends and a strong gut feel. This over/under is extremely low at 38. Consider these stats:
-If one of the Super Bowl teams enters the game having allowed 14 or fewer points in two straight games, the total in the Super Bowl goes OVER 85% of the time.
-The Patriots are 7-1 OVER this season after allowing 14 or fewer points in their previous game.

Both of these trends are based on the fact that the public tends to overreact to recent performance. Since these defenses are so strong (and the offenses so average), the game must go UNDER, right? I say the Total in this game is artificially low and you are getting a lot of value to take the OVER.

In addition:
-In the last 18 Super Bowls, 12 (67%) have gone OVER
-14 of the last 21 Super Bowls played on grass (67%) have gone OVER (games on turf have gone 10-5 UNDER)
-The last time the Total was under 40 was in 2001 when Baltimore and New York scored 41 points to easily go OVER the 33 point Total. Since 1980, of the 5 Super Bowls in which the Total was under 40, four went OVER. The one that did not missed by just 1/2 a point.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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