2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 27, 2011
Buffalo at New York
Sunday 11/27 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Buffalo PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: win
The New York Jets continue to draw totals like they are a defensive team. That reputation rang true a few years ago, but the Jets have not been that team over the last two years. The Jets have actually played to a 22-9 mark to the OVER in their last 31 games. The defense is overrated while the offense is underrated - and the result has been a lot of OVERs. The Bills opened the season at 4-1 and looked like a bona fide playoffs team, but have since reversed those numbers by playing 1-4 in their last five. To make matters worse, they are now without Fred Jackson for the rest of the season. The NFL is a contrary league, and right now no one wants any part of the Bills who have scored 15 total points in their last two games, but the bad numbers put them in very favorable situations this week. One of which shows teams that score less than a total of 16 points in their previous two games combined as a 7+ dog cover over 58% of the time. The Jets are barely outscoring teams on the season (22.8 to 21.7) which doesn't justify a line this big. The Bills have also gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a dog of +3.5 to +10. The Jets have been an OVER team as mentioned above, and so have the Bills at 8-2-1 to the OVER in their last 11 games, and 6-0-1 to the OVER in their last seven as a dog. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets are 25-13 OVER vs. AFC teams. Take Buffalo and play the OVER in this one.