2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 28, 2014

This pick was released to clients on December 25, 2014 at 11:13AM ET.


Buffalo at New England

Sunday 12/28 01:00 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 44.5 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 2.86)  RESULT: WIN

While I am tempted to take New England here, the fact that this is a meaningless game will keep me off that. Instead we will turn to the total. Given that this game means nothing for both teams, I don't see the offenses opening it up. The Patriots can get key starters healthy, such as offensive players QB Tom Brady, Julian Edelman (concussion) and star TE Rob Gronkowski. Last week they had a lackluster performance against the Jets as the Patriots finished with a season-worst 231 total yards and the Bills defense has allowed just 18.7 points per game this season. If Brady does rest, we will see rookie QB Jimmy Garappolo and I don't expect to see much if any scoring from the Pats with him behind center. Buffalo won't be into this game, eliminated from playoff contention for the 15th straight season with last week's 26-24 loss at Oakland, extending the longest active playoff drought in the NFL. So I don't expect much from them. But their defense is good enough on auto-pilot to hold down the Pats. Their strength is a defense ranked third against the pass and 13th against the run. Buffalo is 7-0 UNDER the total after a loss and 5-2 UNDER on the road. The Bills are 12-3 to the UNDER this season for a reason. Go with the UNDER here.

Bills 7 10 0 0 17
Patriots 3 3 3 0 9



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