2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 20, 2011
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Buffalo at Miami
Sunday 11/20 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Buffalo PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
After an 0-7 start the Dolphins have put two straight in the win column and suddenly the oddsmakers have them as a team the equal of Buffalo? Actually that isn't true as the oddsmakers posted Buffalo (rightfully so) as the road favorite in this game. But, the public jumped all over the suddenly-hot Dolphins and the line has moved a lot. The Dolphins didn't exactly knock down a couple of playoff teams in their wins as they beat a pair of teams with losing records. They have not taken care of business at home for a long time running and in their last 36 home games as a favorite they are a money-burning 7-29 ATS. Contributing to this line of course is the recent performane of the Bills. They may not be looking as good as they did early in the season as the team has been beset with injuries, but are they really that bad now? I don't think so. Their schedule has been gruesome as they have played seven of their last eight games vs. winning teams. So, getting a 2-7 Miami team should bring a different result for the Bills as they have beaten losing teams this year 64-7. The Bills have been good at bouncing back off a loss at 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11, failing to cover just one time in their last five as a dog. Miami is just 8-21 ATS under Tony Sparano in home games and 0-7 ATS following back-to-back wins. A couple of weeks ago this line would be Buffalo by more than field goal. Now they are getting points. I like the better team getting points.
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