2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 11, 2011
Buffalo at Kansas City
Sunday 09/11 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Buffalo PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
It is surprising to see the young Chiefs this big a favorite (the Chiefs are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite). Kansas City is not a high-powered offensive machine, but is one that has only one decent wide receiver and is still trying to find a tight end ever since they traded Tony Gonzalez. This is a run-oriented, ball-control offense that loses outstanding offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. They are 1-2 ATS the last three times they’ve been favored by 6 or more. One of those was last season to this Buffalo team, a 13-10 KC win as 7-point chalk. The Chiefs hoped to upgrade the passing offense with first round pick WR Jon Baldwin, but that’s already turned out to be a bust as the kid argued with teammates in August and was pretty much ostracized. This defense is average, ranking in the middle of the pack last year. Buffalo comes in with an underrated young QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick (23 TDs, 15 INTs) and is a team that really plays hard for Coach Chan Gailey at 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Chiefs didn't care at all about preseason and this is a game where the defenses will be ahead of the offense, which is common in week one. The offensive line struggled badly in preseason as the Chiefs were last in the NFL in scoring and yardage. The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games and have more than enough to keep this close again. Play the Bills.