This pick was released to clients on January 15, 2026 at 10:30AM ET.
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Buffalo at Denver

January 17, 2026
img4:30 PM Eastern

The fact that a No.1 seed did not open as a favorite in the divisional playoffs for the first time in nine years should tell us something about this matchup. Denver has been similar to the Chicago Bears this season, as the Broncos have been pulling off wins coming from behind and/or in the last seconds of games. Buffalo appears to be peaking at the right time with six wins in seven games after knocking off Jacksonville 27-24. Josh Allen came through again, completing 28 of 35 for 273 yards with no interceptions. Allen found Brandin Cooks for 36 yards and then capped the go-ahead drive with a 1-yard TD run. The Bills annihilated the Broncos 31-7 in last year's playoffs, although that was in Buffalo. The Bills are 8-1 ATS in their past nine meetings and have covered four of their past five January games. Denver is 2-4 ATS in its past six games and 1-7 ATS in its past eight Saturday games. Buffalo is one of the few teams that can penetrate Denver's #2-rated rushing defense, as the Bills lead the NFL with 159.6 yards rushing per game. The Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS in their past five divisional playoff games. Take the Bills. 

2 units on Buffalo +1.5 (-115) (risk 2 to return 3.74)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL - OT
1
2
3
4
F
Buffalo Bills
7
3
7
13
30
Denver Broncos img
3
17
3
7
33
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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