2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 18, 2011

18

Baltimore at Tennessee

Sunday 09/18 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Tennessee PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: win

2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

When you have a situation in the NFL where one team is off a mightily impressive win (the Ravens’ masterful 35-7 thrashing of the Steelers), and another team off a disappointing loss (the Titans 16-14 setback vs. Jacksonville), the line value will always fall in the hands of the losing team. Such is the case here as Tennessee limps out of a poor offensive showing vs. the Jags, while the Ravens looked Super Bowl worthy in their resounding win vs. the Super Bowl runner-up Steelers. Now venues change for both teams and one team is fat and happy while the other scratching to avoid a dreaded 0-2 start. The Ravens’ road show has averaged just 20 points per game over the last two years in 16 road games. More importantly that number dips to 18.5 ppg when the total is posted under the 40-point mark. When a team is a 5.5 point favorite, averaging just 18.5 points in this situation offers resounding value on the UNDER, as well as placing them in a very narrow window to grab a cover. In the Titans’ the last nine home games with a total posted at under 40, they have bowed their backs and allowed a stingy 13.2 ppg, while scoring just under 20 ppg themselves. This one shapes up to be a very tight and low-scoring game. The Titans are tough in this role at 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog, and 17-5 ATS after scoring 15 or less in their previous game. The Ravens have failed to get the money in each of their last five following a big win of 14 points or more. Baltimore is 11-3 UNDER the past three seasons after a game that went OVER the total. Play Tennessee and the UNDER in this one.

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Wins Losses Units
2330 2048 +201.22

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