2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
August 31, 2007
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Baltimore at Atlanta
Friday 08/31 07:30 PM Eastern
4 units on Atlanta +3.5 (-115) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
We rode the Falcons to the win last Monday night. As anticipated, they "showed up" for the big home opener. They played well, trying to put "the dog killer" behind them. They succeeded. They liked winning. It felt good. They will try to do it again. The motivation for this new coach and his players to win remains. They want to keep the media and fans focused on Atlanta's positive prospects, not the loss of Michael Vick. The question of whether they can win without Vick remains. They don't want to fan the flames and destroy the good will they garnered last week by losing at home here. To boot they are getting more than a field goal! While Brian Billick started out his career as a winning coach in the preseason, that motivation seems to have slipped. He started out an incredible 14-5. But, the past two seasons he has gone 4-4 and this year 1-2. So, he's gone from a 74% guy to a 45% guy. The Ravens have nothing to prove in the preseason after their good 2006 campaign. They just want to get through it, and to the regular season. Preseason road teams that don't score much don't fare well (Baltimore averaging 16). In contrast, new coaches as home dogs fare quite well (as partially evidenced by Monday night's performance). Here we have a motivated home team with something to play for, that has been winning, getting points from an unmotivated, low-scoring road team. Take the very live home dog here.