Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Atlanta's last five games finished with 49, 69, 53, 54, and 49 combined points. The Falcons won 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans, lost 30-23 to Baltimore and 31-23 to Chicago, then beat San Francisco 29-20 last Sunday. I count 31 points a game for Atlanta across the five. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 213 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers without an interception. His third touchdown pass, to Drake London early in the fourth quarter, made it 26-14. Atlanta's defense allowed 153 points in its first six games and 20 more against San Francisco, which is 24.7 a game across seven. Tampa Bay won 43-13 on the road at Carolina last Sunday, with Baker Mayfield back from a right thumb injury. Through six games, opponents ran for 83.2 yards a game against Atlanta and threw for 252 instead, and cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and C.J. Henderson were both limited in Thursday's practice with groin injuries. I'm on the OVER Sunday afternoon.