2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 06, 2011

06

Atlanta at Indianapolis

Sunday 11/06 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Indianapolis PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

There are now just a pair of teams left that have failed to win a game on the season, and leading the way are the 0-8 Colts. After losing 62-7 a couple of weeks ago, this is the ugliest of the teams this season, especially for the sportsbooks. Despite hanging big numbers on them, Indy continues to lose by a ton each week (they are 2-6 ATS). As a result, you can expect the numbers to remain inflated. The Colts have a chance here because they are facing a team in Atlanta that has surrendered over 5 yards per carry in their last two games. If Indianapolis can get something going on the ground, Curtis Painter has a chance to have an adequate game. If the Colts are in it, Mathis and Freeney become viable on defense. Atlanta is in a good letdown situation here. They are off an emotional upset win over a very good Detroit team and they have New Orleans on deck. The Falcons can't be too excited for this one. Atlanta also plays measurably worse on the road, where they are 1-3 ATS on the season. I'm not going to sit here and try to make the Colts look good, they are not. What I can do is take a snapshot of history that shows teams like Indy are completely undervalued because no one wants them. Winless teams from Week 9 on in the NFL are a 74% bet ATS and it doesn't get any better than that! So, we'll swallow hard and back the Colts this week.

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