2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 20, 2011
Arizona at San Francisco
Sunday 11/20 04:05 PM Eastern
3 units on Arizona PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
The Niners are undefeated this season against the spread. When you have that situation this late in the season, you start getting some serious line value the other way. This will be a tough spot for San Francisco to get motivated, as they have all but wrapped up the NFC West just nine games into the season with their stellar 8-1 record. That gives them a five game lead with just seven to play. And, they are coming off a huge win vs. the Giants and they have Baltimore on tap. In the meantime, they get the lowly Cardinals at home which can't excite them. The Cardinals have found a little unexpected benefit in the arm of John Skelton and won as a huge dog last week at Philadelphia. Skelton has achieved a higher QB rating than Kolb this season. The 49ers may also be limited in their use of Frank Gore who injured his knee last week and with such a big cushion, I doubt they will put him in harm’s way often, as this game doesn't mean much. The Niners have already shown signs of contentment when playing bad teams with a 10-point win vs. Cleveland and an 8-point win vs. Washington. This one certainly sets up to be even closer yet. The Cardinals are now 16-7 ATS off a game where they passed for 150 yards or less, and the road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these clubs. In their last 32 games vs. great teams (.750+), Arizona has gone 24-8 against the number. Under Ken Wisenhunt, this team is 12-3 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 6+ points per game. Take the Cards with the points.