2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 14, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

14

Arizona at San Francisco

Monday 12/14 08:35 PM Eastern

5 units on San Francisco +5 (-115) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: WIN

We were on Arizona big last week. I liked the Cardinals in that spot vs. the then-one loss Vikings. Arizona was coming on and Minnesota was overrated. The Cardinals dominated that game and won outright as an underdog. The nation watched and the talk since has been how good Arizona really is. Now, it is the Cardinals that risk the "overrated" tag. The public has lined up on the Cardinals here to the tune of 80% and they've pushed the line from -3 to -3.5. That was a huge statement game for Arizona last week and they were ready for it. This "hangover" game against the 5-7 Niners doesn't carry the same significance. This sets up to be a good spot for the Niners, as they catch Arizona in a logical flat spot, coming off the huge emotional statement game at home. The Cards, at 8-4, have all but locked up the division, and have no reason to bring their best game here. The 49ers have turned things around a bit. Mike Singletary changed the offense to the spread, which has been more aligned with the skill set of Alex Smith at quarterback. Smith has responded by throwing for close to 800 yards and seven TD's and just one INT in the last three games. He has also been sacked just once in the last two games. With the addition of Michael Crabtree to the offense, along with the Pro Bowl caliber play of TE Vernon Davis, and RB Frank Gore coming out of the backfield, he has some weapons to throw to. This is a big game for San Francisco. Going back two years ago, the Buffalo Bills had a chance to host a Monday Night game for the first time in a long while, and gave Dallas fits as a huge dog. The same can be said about Houston hosting the Jags on Monday Night, winning by 13. Now the Niners get their first Monday Nighter since week 1 of 2007. Historically, the Cards have not done well in this spot, as they are just 7-21 ATS in their last 28 on the road vs. teams with a losing record. Arizona has revenge here, but good teams (.500 or better) seeking same season revenge vs. teams with a less than .600 winning percentage does not translate, as they have covered just over 40% of the time in the last 190+ tries. While the Monday Night home dog has fared poorly overall in recent years, this is one situation in which they have continued to thrive. Monday Night Football divisional home dogs with less than a .500 record are a highly profitable 17-4 ATS. I like the Niners plus the points.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Cardinals 0 0 3 6 9
49ers 10 7 0 7 24

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