2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 30, 2011

30

Arizona at Baltimore

Sunday 10/30 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Arizona PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The Baltimore Ravens looked about as bad as a team could look on Monday Night against Jacksonville. The offense did not generate a single first down the entire first half and the Ravens subsequently went down to a 1-5 team without much of a fight as a double-digit favorite. This game will mark just the fourth time in 22 years that a team lost as a double-digit favorite on the road, and has come back favored by double digits at home. It's too much. The first three have gone just 1-2. Arizona has had some problems of their own at 1-5 on the season of course. There is bad news with both of these teams, which historically has put the underdog here in a great spot. We also have the public ignoring the Ravens Monday Night debacle as they are coming right back with them at over 70% strong, expecting a fired up team to take out their frustrations on a helpless opponent. But, this line is inflated. Teams from Week 8 on that have just one win on the season are 77-49 ATS as a road dog. If they are big dogs getting more than a TD, that mark moves to 47-29 ATS. The Cardinals have also relished in this role in recent games as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four as a dog of greater than +10.5. Arizona has posted a 14-4 ATS mark in their last 18 games vs. great defensive teams (those allowing 14 or fewer points per game) and 34-14 ATS vs. teams that outscore their competitors by 6+ points per game (including 11-3 ATS under Ken Wisenhunt). The beautiful girl gets the dance at the party, while the ugly dog gets the money in the NFL. Take Arizona in this one.

NFL

 

Last 20.2 years

Wins Losses Units
2379 2089 +209.59

Get FREE NFL PICKS
with detailed analysis