New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Mike McCarthy has already named Will Howard the Steelers' starter tonight, with Drew Allar rotating in behind him. McCarthy said this week he wants to max out the reps for both, which leaves Mason Rudolph and Aaron Rodgers on the sideline. Allar threw for over 150 yards and two touchdowns in extended work last week, and Howard held his own too. Aaron Glenn is doing the opposite with the Jets. "The players are going to play," he said this week, though Geno Smith's taped ankle keeps the top job murky. If Smith sits again, Cade Klubnik takes over, and he already turned a two-series look into ten points his last time out. Two backup quarterback rooms fighting for roster spots tend to sling it rather than manage the clock, and both teams combined for 35 points last week with backups running things. I'm on the OVER.

Pittsburgh is counting on 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 3,897 yards and 28 TDs with 11 interceptions for the Jets in 2024. However, a lot of that production was due to New York having to play catch-up as it stumbled to a 5-12 season. Rodgers is just 3-11 straight up and 4-10 ATS his past 14 starts, and the Steelers seemingly acquired him out of desperation after failing with Russell Wilson, and then Justin Fields moved on. Pittsburgh lost its final five games last season and didn't cover in any of them. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, but there have been plenty of mediocre ones. The Steelers have lost six of their last seven games against the AFC East, and they have lost four of their past five road games. Coincidentally, Fields will also face his former team in Week 1, having gone 4-2 in six starts for the Steelers. The Jets have a talented backfield featuring Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis, along with a star receiver in Garrett Wilson. Pittsburgh has gone UNDER six Week 1s in a row, and the Steelers are 10-2 UNDER as road favorites of 0.5-3.0 points. They are 5-1 UNDER their past six games, and 14 of the past 19 meetings have stayed UNDER. Take the Jets and the UNDER.

New York star QB Aaron Rodgers (9 TDs, 5 INTs) got an early Christmas present as the Jets traded for his old partner, wide receiver Davante Adams. The offense is 13th in the NFL on third down (40.96%), while the defense is second in yards allowed, seventh in points, and ninth on third down (33.78%). Pittsburgh's offense has slumped to 24th in total yards and 19th on third down. It's a conservative offense with QB Justin Fields (5 TDs, one pick) averaging 4.0 yards per rush. The Steelers have lost two of three despite being favored in all three. Play New York. 

Pittsburgh suffered an ugly loss to Cleveland last Thursday night and the Steeler fans can't wait for Mike Tomlin to replace Mitch Trubisky with Kenny Pickett.. However, even if that happens the Steelers have problems on the offensive line and they are second-to-last in the NFL with only 272.7 total yards per game and #28 with an average of 182.7 passing yards. Surprisingly, the Jets are #9 in total yards (370.0 per game) and #5 in passing yards (286.0). New York did lose 27-12 to Cincinnati mainly due to four turnovers, including two interceptions by Joe Flacco, who threw for 285 yards, but the Jets were only outgained 330-328. New York has gone UNDER four of its last five games after allowing at least 250 passing yards its previous game and Pittsburgh is an incredible 40-16-1 UNDER its past 57 games against teams with losing records. Also, the Steelers have stayed UNDER their last five home games and they are 1-6-1 ATS their past eight games versus teams with losing records. Look for another grind-it-out matchup and play the Jets ATS as a Max Play and the UNDER as a Max Play.

Pittsburgh is hanging on to the sixth playoff seed, but it's going to have to come up with a way to score more points as the Steelers have averaged only 15.5 points their last six games. Devlin Hodges has done his best to keep his team in games, but he threw four interceptions against Buffalo although a couple were in desperation time. The Steelers are #30 in the league in total yards and #31 in passing yards. New York understandably loss to the red-hot Ravens, but the Jets still have won four of their last six games. Le'Veon Bell will face his former teammates for the first time. The Steelers have scored no more than one offensive touchdown in six of their last seven games. Sam Darnold went 18-of-32 for 218 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore and he now has a 61.7-percent completion rate and 2,642 passing yards in 11 games this season. Darnold has shown improvement from earlier in the season as he has thrown only four picks his last seven games. This one goes to the wire, so play the Jets.