New Orleans Saints vs St. Louis Rams Point Spread Picks

The New Orleans Saints are off their biggest win (measured by margin) in team history. And, they did it before a national TV audience, defeating a winless Colts team 62-7. They are now installed as a two TD favorite on the road and they face the Rams who are winless and have scored all of 27 points the last four weeks, so this one is easy right? The public at over 80% thinks so. But hold on. Two touchdowns on the road? That's a tall order. Winless teams from Week 8 historically cover at a 67% clip because the oddsmakers know what team the public is on, and the lines are dramatically inflated. The Saints are far from automatic. When they are good like last Sunday Night they get your attention. It's also easy for them to let down a bit after such a perfect performance, now facing an awful team. Don't forget that Drew Brees has thrown 30 INTs in his last 23 starts. The Saints are also 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record, and have the propensity to be a no-show in this type of game. Take the big home dog. Also take the UNDER here. It would not surprise me to see New Orleans' offense a bit lackluster here after crusing last week. The Rams have gone 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four as a dog of +10.5 or more, and are now also 15-5-2 to the UNDER in their last 22 following an ATS loss. The Rams are 10-4-1 to the UNDER in their last 15 games when they have allowed 150+ on the ground. They are also a perfect 8-0 UNDER the past three seasons under Steve Spagnuolo when facing a good team (.600 or better). This one goes to St. Louis and the UNDER.

The Rams have won just three football games in their last 28 tries. For that they can primarily blame their offense which is amongst the worst in NFL history over that period. The Rams offense has accounted for seven touchdowns in eight games on the season, and they have one INT returned for a TD. They rank dead last in the NFL, scoring just one of those seven offensive TDs from inside the 10-yard line. Overall the Rams average less than 10 points per game. It is very rare to see a total set in a game at or around the 50-point mark with just one offensive team in the game. The Saints offense is certainly powerful, but to put this one over the total it is likely they will have to push the 40-point mark. The Rams have played in just seven games in the last three years where a game total exceeded 50 points, discounting week 17 when mostly reserves play. The Rams defense isn't great, but they have only allowed 40 points or more in a game six times in their last 66 games (9% of the time). If and when the Saints open a big lead, they will eventually turn to the running game to milk the clock, and they may even rest starters late in this one. Yes, the Saints have put up 30+ points in each of their last four games. But, under Sean Payton, they are a perfect 6-0 UNDER follwoing 3+ straight games scoring 25 or more. I like this one to go UNDER the total.