New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith is having a much better year than his predecessor at Seattle, Russell Wilson, as Smith is completing an NFL-high 77.3 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and just two interceptions with a passer rating of 108. Last week he threw for 320 yards and two TDs and ran for 49 yards and a TD as the Seahawks outlasted Detroit 48-45. Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf had seven catches for 149 yards and they improved to 2-2 straight up and ATS this season. New Orleans has lost three in a row, including 28-25 in London on Sunday when Wil Lutz's 61-yard tying field goal attempt hit the left upright and then the crossbar as time expired. Andy Dalton threw for 236 yards and a touchdown playing in place of injured Jameis Winston, who is questionable for this game. The teams met last year and it went UNDER by 19 points as the Saints won 13-10. The UNDER is 12-2 in Seattle's past 14 games after they allowed at least 250 passing yards its previous game and the Seahawks have stayed UNDER 11 of their past 15 road games and they are 15-7 UNDER overall after giving up more than 30 points. New Orleans is 8-3 UNDER its past 11 games overall and the Saints are just 2-8 ATS after an ATS win and they have covered only two of their past seven home games. Take the Seahawks and the UNDER.

New Orleans will try to build on its 33-22 win over Washington last week when Jameis Winston completed 15 of 30 for 279 yards and four touchdowns with one interception. Seattle still is without Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have lost four of their last five games, including an ugly 23-20 overtime loss at Pittsburgh last week. Seattle did gain 144 yards on 27 carries and Geno Smith went 23 of 32 for 209 yards and a touchdown. New Orleans though has the second-best run defense in the league, giving up 79 yards per game and Chris Carson is out with a neck injury and Alex Collins is dealing with a hip injury. However, oft-injured Rashaad Penny is expected to be activated from injured reserve and that is vital for the Seahawks as they need all the running backs they can get. The teams last met in 2019 and the Saints won 33-27 and they are 36-15 ATS their past 51 road games, 37-15 ATS overall their last 52 October games. Monday night underdogs off a road loss are absolutely horrible straight-up under the bright lights. New Orleans is fresh off a bye week and HC Sean Payton can craft gameplans with the best of them, but I'm not interested in laying more than a field goal here. Take the Saints on the moneyline as a Max Play.

Seattle hasn't lost since Week 2, winning at the Jets 27-17 in a pick 'em game, while coming off a tie at Arizona as a dog. This defense keeps them in every game, ranking third in the NFL in yards allowed, fifth against the run and tied for first in points allowed (14 points per game). They face a Saints team that passes all day long, but Seattle has a suffocating secondary, ninth in the league in passing, and a great pass rush. The Seahawks are 9-4 ATS against a team with a losing record. This New Orleans team has a losing record overall and at home. The offense is strong, but this defense is terrible at #29 in yards and dead last in points allowed (32.3 ppg). If they continue to give up that many points, they will go down as one of the worst defenses in NFL history. They've been favored twice this season and lost both games while giving up 35 and 45 points. Seattle's offense will be putting in extra work this week to atone for a terrible performance last week. In their last 25 games after scoring under a touchdown, the Seahawks are 18-7 to the OVER. In the Pete Carroll era, they are 10-2 OVER after a game in which they scored and allowed 14 points or less. Carroll's Seahawks are also 22-11 OVER when facing good offensive tgeams (those scoring 24+ points per game). Meanwhile, New Orleans is 47-31 OVER at home under Sean Payton. Take Seattle on the moneyline and take the OVER.

These teams met on a Monday night back in week 10, and it was all Seattle. New Orleans was held to 188 total yards of offense in that game. I certainly think the Saints offense will benefit from having played here this year. They now have a first-hand recent understanding of how loud this building can get, and they will make some adjustments. The sound wasn't the only problem the Saints had here last time. New Orleans went down 3-0 midway through the first quarter, and the game changed when Seattle picked up a fumble and brought it back for a TD for a 10-0 lead. Just four minutes later, Seattle scored again to go up 17-0 in the first quarter. That closed the playbook somewhat for New Orleans, as trailing by three scores they were forced to the air. Without having to commit a safety to the running game, Seattle draped a curtain over the Saints' receivers, and New Orleans couldn't do anything. Last week New Orleans generated 185 yards on the ground on 36 carries. While I don't believe they will be able to do that against Seattle, they will be able to run enough to open up some opportunities for Drew Brees which were not there in their previous meeting. Seattle's offense has been called into question this season, but they have had little problems scoring at home. The Seahawks' last 14 home games have seen them generate an average of 31.1 points per game. That includes 29.1 ppg this year. If that's a struggling offense, then give it to me every time! The Saints are 42-20-1 to the OVER when following an ATS win and under Sean Payton, they are 46-41 OVER following a win. The Seahawks have played OVER in their last four Divisional playoff games and under Pete Carroll, they are 14-4 OVER following a great defensive effort (a game in which they held their opponent to 14 or less). Also in the Carroll-era, the Seahawks are 19-8 OVER when facing winning teams. Remember, the last four times the Saints scored less than 10 points against a team, they came back in the next meeting to score 34, 28, 31 and 46 points - and three of the four were on the road. Take the OVER in this one.